Stock Market Update on Yes Bank for 1QFY2012 with an Accumulate recommendation
For 1QFY2012, Yes Bank reported a strong performance with net profit growth of 38.2% yoy (6.2% qoq) to `216cr, marginally above our estimate of `212cr. Profit growth was driven by sequentially stable NIMs and a sharp drop in provisioning expenses (due to write-back of `15cr), which offset the lower-than-expected non-interest income. The bank seemed to have moderated growth for maintaining NIMs. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation on the stock.
Business growth moderates; steady NIMs and strong asset quality: During the quarter, the bank seemed to have moderated its balance sheet growth to maintain NIMs, as evident from the sequential decline in advances of 3.7%. Consequently, deposit accretion also declined by 5.1% qoq. CASA deposits continued to grow at a brisk pace of 49.8% yoy, leading to an improvement in CASA ratio to 10.9% from 10.5% in 1QFY2011. The bank surprised positively with sequentially stable NIMs at 2.8% on the back of a 90bp rise in yield on advances, which offset the 70bp qoq increase in cost of funds. With advances growth moderating, non-interest income growth came down to 14.9% yoy. Asset quality of the bank continued to be in a sweet spot, with best-in-the-industry gross and net NPA ratios of 0.17% and 0.01%, respectively, coupled with provision coverage (excluding technical write-offs) of 95.2%. Branch expansion plans were on track, with addition of 41 branches to take the network to 255 branches.
Outlook and valuation: Structurally, as the bank’s balance sheet continues to grow rapidly, we believe there may be downside risks to the bank’s RoA. On the liabilities side, building a savings deposit franchise involves execution risks. However, as we believe that we are very close to the peak of the current interest rate cycle and as liquidity has improved compared to the extreme tightness during the last few quarters, the environment is expected to be relatively more conducive for banks such as Yes Bank. The stock is trading at of 2.0x FY2013E ABV. We maintain Accumulate on the stock with a target price of `353.
